Prediction markets
69 studies in the past 365 days. Tags are assigned automatically from titles and abstracts; a study can carry several.
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On the ethics of utilizing prediction markets for forecasting hydrological catastrophe
As peer-to-peer prediction markets increasingly allow real-money wagering on environmental events, public scientific agencies are being drawn into the role of financial “settlement oracles,” the designated sources of truth against which contracts resolve …
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Wagering on Unfinished Experiments-Prediction Markets and Clinical Trial Integrity
This Viewpoint discusses the potential impact on recruitment, retention, measurement, or evidence generation after a prediction market platform announced it would host betting on the outcomes of clinical trials and US Food and Drug Administration regulatory reviews, noting that policy action is needed to ensure that prediction markets do not undermine the …
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Jackpot Justice: Predation, Profit, and State-Corporate Crime in Online Gambling
Since the US Supreme Court ruled that the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act was unconstitutional in 2018, there has been a rapid increase in digital gambling …
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In Case You Haven't Heard…
Last month the Heather Maurer, executive director of the National Council on Problem Gambling resigned after taking $2 million from Kalshi, a prediction market. The problems of gambling addiction and problem gambling have been growing with online sports betting and prediction markets …
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Shaping the future as we bet
Abstract The rapid ascent of decentralized prediction platforms such as Polymarket signals more than a regulatory or financial controversy …
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Forecasting 2026 Congressional Control: A Comparison of IEM and Kalshi Prediction Markets
We report Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) and Kalshi prediction market forecasts for the congressional control configuration resulting from the 2026 U.S …
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Prediction markets as a collective expectation signal for disease surveillance
Public health increasingly uses unofficial signals such as rumors, media, search, and self-reported symptoms to detect emergencies before official counts. Commercial prediction markets, where people bet on disease events, are a candidate new source, built for forecasting; but the expectation they price is itself a further unofficial signal …
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Prediction Markets in Clinical Trials and Drug Approval
This Viewpoint discusses the emergence of prediction markets for clinical trials and drug approvals, identifies the risks of these markets, and proposes oversight methods to develop potential benefits.
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Prediction Markets vs. Expert Surveys: Comparing Forecast Accuracy for Scientific Replication Outcomes
Fewer than half of published findings in psychology and social science have been shown to replicate, yet researchers, journals, and funders must constantly decide which results to trust and build upon …
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Ban bets on unfinished clinical trials
In July, the prediction market platform Kalshi and data company AppliedXL began a pilot market listing binary, yes-or-no contracts on whether named late-stage clinical trials meet their preregistered primary end points …
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Prediction markets in dermatology: Ethical considerations for physicians
Prediction markets increasingly allow participants to take financial positions on biomedical outcomes, including clinical trial results and United States Food and Drug Administration decisions …
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Our Technological Wager
Abstract: Everything is a wager these days. Gambling odds are now a ubiquitous feature of sports broadcasts, and prediction markets welcome bets on the timing of U.S. missile strikes …
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From Mainstream News to Prediction Markets: Dual Pathways of Information Seeking During an Anticipatory Security Crisis
ABSTRACT Introduction How do individuals seek information when a security threat is anticipated but has not yet materialized? This study examined whether intolerance of uncertainty and state anxiety are differentially associated with information consumption across channels during an anticipatory conflict period …
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The Legal Nature of Prediction Markets and Event Contracts and Their Appropriate Regulatory Framework
본고에서는 이른바 예측시장(prediction market) 내지 예측시장에서 거래되는 사건기반계약(event contract)을 우리나라에서 금융규제의 틀 내에 포섭하여 규율하여야 하는지, 또한 만일 그렇지 않다면 이를 어떻게 규율하는 것이 바람직 할지의 여부에 대해 예측시장 내지 사건기반계약의 법적 성격에 기반하여 분석하였다 …
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The nihilism industry: Streaming disavowal and ressentiment in the age of prediction markets
Abstract This article reads Amin Samman’s new book, Currency of Nihilism , alongside two symptomatic products – the HBO/BBC series Industry and the rise of prediction markets – to argue that ressentiment , disavowal, and nihilism name three interlocking dimensions of the same affective formation …
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Coverage-Constrained Selective Prediction for Short-Horizon Cryptocurrency Event Contracts via Adaptive Quantile Thresholds
A fixed-odds contract on short-horizon price direction has a positive expected value only when its win probability exceeds the break-even rate implied by the payout ratio. A deployable predictor must also produce signals at a sufficiently stable rate …
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Optimal transport stress testing and fund-level risk management for DeFi lending against prediction market collateral
In this paper, we develop optimal transport stress testing, liquidation cost modeling, and fund-level capital allocation for lending against prediction market collateral …
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NY AG sues Kalshi for illegal gambling
Last month, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James sued Kalshi for running an illegal gambling operation. Kalshi has claimed that it is a commodity …
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Hype Finance and Casino Capitalism
Kobe De Keere on prediction markets and their winners and losers.
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Does CFTC Regulation Reduce Prediction Market Anomalies? A Benford’s Law And DiD Analysis
The rapid growth of prediction markets raises concerns about data integrity and susceptibility to manipulation. This study examines whether Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulation of Polymarket reduces market anomalies measured through Benford's Law conformity …
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SPORTS PREDICTION MARKET TAKEOVER: CFTC GIVING FREE REIN TO (CONFLICTED) SPORTS LEAGUES?
Gaming Law Review, Volume 30, Issue 8-9, Page 251-257, October-November 2026. Murphy v. National Collegiate Athletic Associationrepositioned professional sports leagues as integrity partners and governance authorities in a legalized betting market where leagues held no direct financial stake in wagering outcomes. Commodity Futures ...
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NY Gaming Commission 1, Kalshi 0 in first round
Prediction market company Kalshi tried to prevent New York State from enforcing its gambling laws against the company. Earlier this month, it lost round one. A federal judge denied a request by Kalshi for a preliminary injunction against the New York State Gaming Commission.
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Larangan Gharar dan Maysir dalam Keuangan Digital Perspektif Ekonomi Syariah Indonesia
Abstract. The development of financial technology in Indonesia has facilitated transactions, but at the same time, it has opened the door to elements of transactions that are prohibited in Islam, such as gharar (uncertainty) and maysir (gambling) …
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Can Prediction Markets Price Reality? Insights into the Political Economy of Post-Truth
This article analyzes contemporary prediction markets as financialized infrastructures that convert uncertain future events into tradable claims under conditions of post-truth and overaccumulation …
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Retail Betting Markets
This paper examines the rapid expansion and convergence of retail betting markets.We analyze market design elements, discuss economic utility, and highlight shared behavioral drivers of sports betting markets, prediction markets, and retail options trading.Our review underscores how technological innovation, behavioral biases, and regulatory arbitrage have …
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Measuring macroeconomic surprise magnitude with prediction markets: Market-implied dispersion from Kalshi
We ask whether prediction markets contain information about the magnitude of macroeconomic surprises beyond what professional forecasts already reveal. Using Kalshi event-contract prices for U.S. CPI, nonfarm payrolls, and GDP releases, we recover the market-implied interquartile range (IQR) of each outcome distribution immediately before the release …
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Exploiting Wicket-Driven Mispricings in Cricket Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are exchange-traded contracts that pay out based on the outcome of a future event, with prices reflecting the market’s consensus probability of that outcome. When new information arrives, prices should adjust instantaneously under the efficient market hypothesis …
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How accurate are forecasts on geopolitical events from human collectives?
Accurate forecasts of geopolitical events are essential for security, foreign, and macroeconomic policy. Among human-based forecasting methods, predictions of collectives have established themselves as particularly accurate and useful. In particular, prediction polls and prediction markets have become well-studied and established methodologies …
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Electoral Predictions on Polymarket: A Quantitative Description of Trading, Commenting, and Reacting
Election betting platforms, which combine real money trading with public political discussion and social feedback, have seen explosive growth worldwide …
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THE MOST IMPORTANT LEGAL BATTLE IN THE HISTORY of GAMBLING
Prediction markets have quickly become the biggest legal issue in the gambling world since Murphy versus NCAA, the multi-year case that eventually resulted in the repeal of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), paving the way for legalized sports betting and unbeknownst at the time, the rise of sports contracts on prediction markets …
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Gambling Disorder and Suicide Risk: A Critical Gap in Psychiatric Assessment Guidelines
The rapid expansion of online gambling platforms - fueled by smartphone accessibility, legalized sports betting, and novel prediction markets - has thrust gambling disorder (GD) into the spotlight. This commentary outlines the growing public health implications of GD, emphasizing the alarming association with suicidality …
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Geographies of Prediction Markets: Gamifying the Future
ABSTRACT This commentary outlines the economic, political and moral geographies of prediction markets and maps how they are gamifying the future. These digital platforms are transforming the gambling industry and raising significant ethical questions.
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Prediction markets as a public health threat
Scientific framing, gambling-like design, and regulatory gaps create risks of a new behavioral addiction and democratic manipulation.
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Prediction markets — I predict some big problems!
If online/smartphone gambling is the new opioid, then prediction markets are the new fentanyl, combined with carfentanil with some xylazine mixed in!
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Political Uncertainty and Credit Risk: The Role of Event Markets in Forecasting Ukraine's Sovereign Spreads
ABSTRACT This paper examines whether prediction market data can forecast sovereign credit risk during periods of geopolitical conflict. Using prices from 152 political event contracts traded on Polymarket, we construct a market‐based measure of geopolitical uncertainty and aggregate information using a neural network …
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Prospects for legalizing decentralized prediction markets in the US on the example of the Polymarket case
The purpose of the study is to comprehensively assess the legal and economic prerequisites for integrating prediction markets into the US financial system, taking into account the regulation of derivative financial instruments, gambling legislation, and the characteristics of decentralized management models, as well as to determine the impact of …
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Political Prediction Markets: Bad Law, but Good Policy?
Political prediction markets have been around in limited formats since 1988, but they recently returned to the public consciousness during the 2024 elections as platforms like Kalshi offered trades on the United States presidential and congressional races. The question is: are these trades legal? …
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Public Health Threats Sometimes Come From Unanticipated Places
The rapid expansion of online sports betting is an emerging public health threat, particularly for young adult men. Online sports betting has links to financial instability, relationship strain, and problematic gambling behaviors …
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Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets
Prediction markets offer a new market-based approach to measuring macroeconomic expectations in real-time. We evaluate the accuracy of prediction market-implied forecasts from Kalshi, the largest federally regulated prediction market overseen by the CFTC …
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In Case You Haven't Heard…
Gambling addiction is not just due to sports anymore. The so‐called “prediction market” is now open for bets on anything from the military operation in Venezuela leading to the arrest of President Nicolas Maduro, to guessing Google's most‐searched terms …
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Using prediction markets and forecasting surveys to predict 28 replication outcomes of classic articles in social psychology and judgement and decision making
Abstract Can researchers predict if classic findings published in the field of social psychology and judgement and decision making replicate? We set up prediction markets and a forecasting survey for predicting replications of 28 experiments of classic well-cited articles …
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Stochastic Modeling of Agentic Information Finance: Convergence Analysis of the Information-Incentive Gap
We study the epistemic efficiency of decentralized prediction markets under autonomous agentic liquidity …
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Real-Time Probabilistic Pricing of Short-Horizon on-Chain Range-Prediction Markets
Ultra-short-horizon prediction products—where a user wagers that an asset’s price will lie inside a chosen price band over a window of a few seconds to a few minutes—have grown rapidly on public blockchains, mirroring the explosion of zero-days-to-expiry (0DTE) options in traditional venues. Unlike inventory-based prediction-market makers (e.g …
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Prediction Markets as Calibration Teachers for Real-Time Bidding: Market Pricing Meets Ad Auctions
Real-time bidding (RTB) systems hinge on calibrated conversion estimates because small probability errors are amplified into large budget allocation and auction outcomes …
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PREDICTION MARKET RISK : A HYBRID LSA-MACHINE LEARNING FRAMEWORK FOR FINANCIAL SENTIMENT CLASSIFICATION
The dynamics of the financial market are heavily influenced by public perception reflected in economic news. Negative sentiment in news is often an early signal of market volatility. However, the high dimensionality and semantic ambiguity of financial text data pose challenges for automatic classification …
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Prediction Markets
En el ámbito del análisis de desempeño de pronosticadores, las llamadas proper scoring rules son una clase de regla de puntuación que incentiva al pronosticador a predecir su creencia verdadera, bajo la premisa de que las predicciones mismas no pueden afectar el desarrollo del evento en cuestión …
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Domain-Driven Identification of Football Probabilities
Obtaining accurate estimates of the true probabilities of sporting events remains a long-standing problem in sports analytics. In this paper we propose a new domain-driven approach that infers true probabilities from betting odds. This task is not trivial, as betting odds are noisy because of bookmaker margins (vig), insider bets, and model imperfections …
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Prediction markets: An emerging form of gambling?
We write to direct the readership to a potential new form of gambling: prediction markets.Prediction markets offer binary yes/no contracts whose prices reflect the market's estimate that a real-world event will occur.For example, a 'Candidate X to win the election' contract might be priced at $0.60, reflecting a market view of a 60% chance of victory …
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Decentralized Prediction Markets and Sports Books
ABSTRACT Prediction markets allow traders to bet on potential future outcomes. These markets exist for weather, political, sports, and economic forecasting. Within this work, we consider a decentralized framework for prediction markets using automated market makers (AMMs) …
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From E-Democracy to C-Democracy: Analyzing Transnational Political Discourse During South Korea’s 2024 Presidential Impeachment on Polymarket
This study examines the emergence of cryptocurrency-enabled democracy (c-democracy) through an analysis of blockchain-based prediction markets during South Korea’s 2024 presidential impeachment crisis …